Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9480…6e9d sports 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 77L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$12
other 28% +$1
politics 14% −$8
economics 13% −$6
culture 6% −$3
crypto 5% −$2
tech 5% −$4
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 3 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 79 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×13.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage165d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $60 −$1 -2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $272 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 04 $2,145 −$3 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 04 $178 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 04 $1,851 −$6 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $392 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 04 $608 −$3 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $415 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 04 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $186 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 04 $1,073 −$2 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $184 $0 -0%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 04 $186 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 04 $1,445 −$3 -0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 04 $394 −$4 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $155 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 04 $1,062 −$3 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 04 $836 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $193 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 04 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $199 $0 -0%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 04 $200 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $194 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $403 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 04 $200 −$1 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $194 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 04 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $197 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $197 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $1,103 −$3 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $372 −$2 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $204 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $212 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $215 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 94¢ $59 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $60 12d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $53 25d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $53 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 96¢ $46 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 96¢ $46 38d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $179 110d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $180 110d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $183 110d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $184 110d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 96¢ $177 110d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $178 110d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $176 110d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $176 110d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $184 110d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $184 110d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $179 110d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $180 110d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $180 110d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $180 110d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $184 110d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $184 110d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 90¢ $180 110d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 90¢ $181 110d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 97¢ $184 110d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 97¢ $184 110d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $177 110d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $177 110d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.77 · official $58.77 (match) · 320 history records