Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x947f…e37e sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,300 (-71%) realized −$1,301 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$1,301
politics 26% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.3% +14.2% 50% 50% +4.2%
≤30d 18 -18.4% -26.2% 44% 44% -14.4%
≤90d 18 -18.4% -26.2% 44% 44% -14.4%
all 19 -22.7% -30.1% 42% 42% -96.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 42% -96.1%
10% -36.8% 42% -96.5%
15% -42.9% 42% -96.8%
20% -48.5% 21% -97.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$121 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$479
Realized−$1,301
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage111d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $473 $474 +$1 (+0%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 +$5 +172%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $5 −$4 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $3 +$4 +133%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 09 $5 +$2 +43%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $5 +$2 +49%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 May 30 $5 +$3 +49%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 27 $3 +$2 +70%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 26 $5 +$2 +38%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 24 $3 +$4 +114%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5 Feb 25 $1,298 −$1,298 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 36¢ $3 31h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 39¢ $3 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 13d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 14d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 15d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 67¢ $4 15d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $3 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 17d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 18d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 67¢ $4 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 BUY Over 36¢ $3 19d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 20d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 22d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 24d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 35¢ $0 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 35¢ $3 26d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $473 28d
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5 BUY Under 50¢ $4 110d
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,294 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.83 · official $478.83 (match) · 63 history records