Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
94 0x947f…a1c4 crypto 704 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$279 (+6%) realized +$279 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%428W / 276L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day37.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days+$75
14 days+$109
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$212
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 240 +7.0% -3.2% 62% 61% -5.8%
≤30d 643 -0.6% -10.1% 61% 60% -6.7%
≤90d 704 +0.3% -9.3% 61% 60% -5.7%
all 704 +0.3% -9.3% 61% 60% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 60% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 57% -14.7%
15% -25.9% 45% -23.0%
20% -33.2% 36% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses428 / 276
Open positions0
Markets (closed)704 / 704
History coverage35d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 704 Trades
no open positions (237 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$15 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$11 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$16 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$16 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1769 history records