Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:48:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
94 0x947a…8180 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$67 (+11%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days+$140
14 days+$85
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$140
other 16% −$55
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +50.0% +35.7% 50% 50% +14.8%
≤30d 5 +28.9% +16.6% 40% 40% +2.8%
≤90d 5 +28.9% +16.6% 40% 40% +2.8%
all 6 +24.4% +12.5% 50% 33% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 33% +2.8%
10% +1.8% 33% -7.0%
15% -8.1% 33% -16.0%
20% -17.1% 33% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$68 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage133d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 +$30 +60%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $274 −$50 -18%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $99 −$97 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 +$257 +259%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $99 −$55 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 08 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $80 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $50 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $50 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $39 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $40 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $134 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 36¢ $102 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 33¢ $32 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $100 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $99 32h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $357 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $100 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 8¢ $44 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $99 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records