Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:36:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x947a…6606 crypto 1134 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$874 (-2%) realized −$878 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate85%1007W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$716
7 days−$823
14 days−$880
30 days−$953
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$957
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -46.5% -51.6% 50% 5% -29.3%
≤30d 443 -12.5% -20.9% 82% 7% -14.1%
≤90d 869 -8.5% -17.2% 86% 7% -13.1%
all 1178 -5.8% -14.8% 85% 13% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 13% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 8% -20.7%
15% -30.4% 5% -28.3%
20% -37.2% 4% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$19 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$878
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1007 / 171
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1178 / 1134
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 90¢ 100¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 149 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $82 −$82 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$51 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$5 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $70 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $46 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.21 · official $7.33 · 3500 history records