Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9476…f335 other 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$242 (+7%) realized +$283 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%67W / 65L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$119
14 days+$321
30 days+$318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$207
sports 13% +$31
world 2% +$8
crypto 2% −$21
tech 0% −$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -24.2% -31.4% 51% 31% -4.8%
≤30d 90 -4.5% -13.6% 52% 41% +0.9%
≤90d 132 -2.1% -11.4% 51% 41% -2.1%
all 132 -2.1% -11.4% 51% 41% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 41% -2.1%
10% -19.9% 34% -11.5%
15% -27.6% 27% -20.0%
20% -34.7% 23% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$283
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses67 / 65
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 145
History coverage75d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 44¢ $100 $59 −$41 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $500 +$14 +3%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $10 +$9 +93%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $58 +$24 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $205 +$6 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $420 +$60 +14%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $29 +$9 +30%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $401 +$43 +11%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $19 −$12 -60%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$12 +59%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $22 +$15 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 +$30 +30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $82 +$8 +9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6 $0 +5%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 $0 -8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 23 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $80 +$4 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $107 +$11 +10%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $7 +$1 +16%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $7 $0 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +17%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +21%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 +$2 +42%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 +$4 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $9 +$2 +19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $98 +$148 +152%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$5 -36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 19 $15 +$14 +93%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $4 +$5 +128%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $14 +$15 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $515 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 100¢ $81 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $209 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 67¢ $7 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 67¢ $25 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 28h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 74¢ $25 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $481 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $420 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $20 45h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 46h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $20 46h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 47h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $9 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $444 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $401 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 18¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.78 · official $58.78 (match) · 345 history records