Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9473…3b20 crypto 1013 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,477 (+2%) realized +$19,139 · open −$662
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate86%973W / 158L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$885per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$5,325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 99d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$12,143
finance 23% −$4,499
tech 11% −$516
other 9% +$3,946
sports 0% −$1,812
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -89.1% -90.1% 10% 2% -68.6%
≤30d 211 -59.2% -63.1% 39% 5% -35.6%
≤90d 1003 -9.3% -17.9% 85% 7% -11.7%
all 1131 -8.2% -16.9% 86% 7% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 7% -11.0%
10% -24.9% 3% -19.5%
15% ← realistic here -32.1% 1% -27.3%
20% -38.8% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$834) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$382 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$5,325
Realized+$19,139
Unrealized−$662
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses973 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1131 / 1013
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$885
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 16? Down 95¢ 93¢ $2,468 $2,423 −$45 (-2%)
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Down 87¢ 64¢ $2,345 $1,732 −$613 (-26%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $635 $626 −$10 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $296 $300 +$4 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $243 $245 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 153 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will NVIDIA say "H20" during earnings call? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? Jun 16 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on February 10? Jun 16 $108 −$108 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on March 5? Jun 16 $475 −$475 -100%
Will Dell say "EPS Growth" during earnings call? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of February 9 above $400? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on March 4? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 2? Jun 16 $408 −$408 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$425 on the final day of trading of the we Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 4? Jun 16 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$310 on the final day of trading of the Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 2 above $325? Jun 16 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Dell say "Zoho" during earnings call? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 30? Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on February 6? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November? Jun 16 $1,306 −$1,306 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of February? Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at <$220 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? Jun 16 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Walmart say "Brick and Mortar" during earnings call? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $175? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -101%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Jun 16 $1,019 −$1,019 -100%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $192-$194 on the final day of trading of Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 4? Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 2 above $330? Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 11? Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 10? Jun 16 $209 −$567 -271%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Jun 16 $1,136 −$1,136 -100%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on December 2? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 5 at 5 PM ET? Jun 16 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $128 −$128 -100%
Will U.S. tourism decline in April? Jun 16 $209 −$209 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March? Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 11? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 21? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on March 9? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $184 −$184 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $538 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 72¢ $364 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 90¢ $1,968 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 94¢ $70 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 93¢ $23 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 95¢ $1,946 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 94¢ $435 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,611 28h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 86¢ $840 41h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 86¢ $832 41h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 86¢ $173 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $243 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $296 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $556 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $697 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,874 5d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 99¢ $119 6d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 98¢ $44 6d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 99¢ $243 6d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 99¢ $69 6d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 98¢ $27 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 95¢ $58 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 95¢ $58 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,657 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 90¢ $499 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 71¢ $355 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 71¢ $354 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 71¢ $44 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,324.97 · official $5,324.97 (match) · 3500 history records