Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
94 0x9473…5728 world 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$203 (-0%) realized −$248 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate90%82W / 9L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$561per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$9,856now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$18
14 days+$59
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 40% +$262
world 23% −$532
tech 21% +$129
culture 5% +$10
other 3% +$55
sports 3% −$399
economics 3% +$42
politics 2% +$33
weather 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +885.8% +791.9% 100% 100% +791.9%
≤30d 20 +41.5% +28.0% 95% 5% -8.9%
≤90d 77 +9.2% -1.2% 88% 6% -10.9%
all 91 +8.8% -1.6% 90% 7% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 7% -10.4%
10% -11.0% 4% -19.0%
15% -19.6% 3% -26.8%
20% -27.5% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$156 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$9,856
Realized−$248
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses82 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions17
Markets (closed)91 / 108
History coverage257d
Avg bet$561
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,275 $3,286 +$12 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,802 $1,802 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,180 $1,193 +$13 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $730 $738 +$8 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 98¢ 100¢ $500 $507 +$7 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 98¢ 98¢ $460 $460 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $410 $410 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 97¢ 96¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $397 $398 +$1 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 75¢ 77¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 83¢ 76¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m? No 90¢ 90¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $2 +$18 +886%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $103 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $600 +$2 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $1,000 +$3 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $2,397 +$42 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $5,140 +$32 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $154 −$147 -95%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $600 +$24 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 10 $200 +$7 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 10 $1,503 +$51 +3%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $100 +$4 +4%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 09 $1,001 +$23 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 03 $400 +$2 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 03 $400 +$5 +1%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 03 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $400 +$7 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $73 +$3 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? Jun 01 $601 +$13 +2%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $400 +$3 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 24 $400 +$4 +1%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $90 +$5 +5%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 16 $80 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $80 −$37 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 1? May 02 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 1? May 02 $90 +$1 +1%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? May 01 $14 +$2 +12%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 01 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $5 +$4 +74%
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30? May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30? May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by April 30? May 01 $50 $0 +1%
Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30? May 01 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30? May 01 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30? May 01 $90 +$1 +1%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $201 +$9 +4%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $375 +$6 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? May 01 $308 +$3 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $300 +$16 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 01 $340 +$8 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $100 +$4 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 01 $487 +$5 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 30 $1,100 +$25 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 30 $298 +$7 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $338 +$6 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 24 $800 +$14 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $216 −$116 -54%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $263 +$14 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $227 −$97 -43%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 20 $388 +$9 +2%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less tha Apr 18 $338 +$10 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $410 1h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 80¢ $101 1h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $300 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1,802 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $401 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $3,418 1h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less th BUY No 90¢ $36 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 71¢ $20 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $630 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $601 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $6,685 8d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $397 8d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $11 8d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $100 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $600 8d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr BUY No 98¢ $981 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 98¢ $400 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 99¢ $100 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 100¢ $103 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,000 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,500 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY No 100¢ $600 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $624 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $207 11d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1,492 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,855.51 · official $9,855.51 (match) · 316 history records