Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:40:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9470…78b8 crypto 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%18W / 58L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$823
other 1% +$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 76 -24.9% -32.0% 24% 0% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 0% -12.3%
10% -38.5% 0% -20.7%
15% -44.5% 0% -28.4%
20% -49.9% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$550) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$42 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses18 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage186d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 27? Jan 27 $116 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 5AM ET Jan 23 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 22? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 9AM ET Jan 21 $710 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 6AM ET Jan 20 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 20? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $200 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 1PM ET Jan 20 $510 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 19 $500 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 11AM ET Jan 19 $700 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 3AM ET Jan 17 $700 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 12-18? Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 16? Jan 17 $700 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 5AM ET Jan 16 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on January 16? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 15? Jan 16 $700 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5AM ET Jan 15 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 15? Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 14 Jan 15 $330 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 14? Jan 15 $350 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 3AM ET Jan 14 $350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 12? Jan 13 $205 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on January 12? Jan 13 $500 −$250 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8AM ET Jan 12 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on January 10? Jan 12 $700 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on January 9? Jan 10 $330 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 9? Jan 10 $350 −$175 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 8? Jan 09 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 8? Jan 09 $600 −$300 -50%
Bitcoin ETF Flows on January 7? Jan 08 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 7? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 6? Jan 07 $300 +$9 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 07 $400 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down on January 5? Jan 06 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 5? Jan 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $200 +$1 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 05 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 2? Jan 03 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 1? Jan 02 $330 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 02 $350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on December 31? Jan 01 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 31? Dec 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Dec 31 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on December 30? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Dec 30 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on December 29? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 22-28? Dec 29 $200 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 7AM ET Dec 29 $500 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $116 138d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $116 139d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 144d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 145d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 146d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 12-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 149d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on January 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 150d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 151d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 14 BUY No 100¢ $330 152d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 12? BUY No 100¢ $205 153d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 156d
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on January 9? BUY No 100¢ $330 157d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 8? BUY No 100¢ $105 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 7? BUY No 1¢ $1 159d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 6? BUY Yes 97¢ $300 159d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 5? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 160d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $200 164d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 1? BUY No 100¢ $330 165d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 166d
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on December 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 166d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on December 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 167d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $200 171d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on December 25 BUY No 100¢ $150 172d
Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on December 24? BUY No 100¢ $150 173d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 23? BUY No 97¢ $200 174d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 174d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on December 20 BUY No 100¢ $150 177d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on December 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records