Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
94 0x9470…8470 crypto 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$74 (-10%) realized −$54 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate68%17W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$117
14 days+$117
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$96
other 31% +$7
crypto 28% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +83.7% +66.2% 100% 100% +38.2%
≤30d 23 +15.0% +4.0% 74% 70% -8.7%
≤90d 25 +5.8% -4.3% 68% 64% -9.8%
all 25 +5.8% -4.3% 68% 64% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 64% -9.8%
10% -13.5% 56% -18.5%
15% -21.8% 32% -26.3%
20% -29.5% 16% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage68d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $150 $136 −$14 (-9%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $61 +$21 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 27 $10 +$34 +340%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 +$5 +60%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Cattolica: Andrea Guerrieri vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $71 +$21 +29%
Tyler: Murphy Cassone vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 04 $50 −$50 -99%
Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 04 $50 +$10 +20%
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 04 $50 +$8 +17%
Centurion 2: Robin Bertrand vs Giles Hussey Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY 15¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 22¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 17d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 20d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 20d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 20d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 20d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 20d
Cattolica: Andrea Guerrieri vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 57¢ $20 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 77¢ $21 23d
Tyler: Murphy Cassone vs Yuta Shimizu BUY Murphy Cassone 78¢ $50 24d
Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Taro Daniel 100¢ $60 24d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 24d
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic BUY Robin Montgomery 54¢ $10 24d
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Dusan Lajovic SELL Henrique Rocha 96¢ $59 24d
Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Taro Daniel 83¢ $50 24d
Centurion 2: Robin Bertrand vs Giles Hussey BUY Robin Bertrand 88¢ $50 24d
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Henrique Rocha 82¢ $50 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.32 · official $155.18 · 57 history records