Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:16:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x946e…2533 crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$74 (-9%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%23W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$81
crypto 15% −$7
sports 10% +$47
world 6% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +13.2% +2.5% 36% 36% -19.0%
≤30d 64 +13.2% +2.5% 36% 36% -19.0%
≤90d 64 +13.2% +2.5% 36% 36% -19.0%
all 64 +13.2% +2.5% 36% 36% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.5% 36% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -7.3% 34% -26.8%
15% -16.3% 27% -33.8%
20% -24.5% 25% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses23 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage6d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$11 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$21 +391%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$16 +31%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $52 −$20 -38%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $20 +$46 +225%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -57%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $52 −$8 -16%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $120 −$115 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +56%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $61 +$20 +32%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $31 +$189 +607%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $57 −$56 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records