Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x946b…7277 other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$5 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%33W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$194
7 days+$138
14 days−$89
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$181
sports 26% +$78
world 9% −$36
crypto 2% +$57
economics 2% −$1
politics 1% −$12
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +49.6% +35.3% 35% 33% +1.1%
≤30d 119 +17.9% +6.6% 28% 27% -13.1%
≤90d 119 +17.9% +6.6% 28% 27% -13.1%
all 119 +17.9% +6.6% 28% 27% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.6% 27% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -3.6% 25% -21.4%
15% -12.9% 24% -29.0%
20% -21.4% 22% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$11 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses33 / 86
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions13
Markets (closed)119 / 132
History coverage11d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+18%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -35%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $33 −$14 -44%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $26 +$17 +66%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $26 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $26 +$28 +108%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $59 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $37 −$36 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $8 +$22 +265%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $8 +$24 +294%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $17 +$34 +195%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $17 +$51 +291%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $18 +$30 +160%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$75 +246%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 +$64 +1239%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 −$19 -75%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +380%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 −$63 -83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 +$36 +55%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$56 +272%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $42 −$18 -44%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$20 +649%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 +$20 +114%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +249%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 +$22 +165%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $67 −$35 -53%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $15 −$1 -6%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $109 −$9 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $24 +$68 +287%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -78%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $50 −$32 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 55m
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 56m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 58m
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 4¢ $18 4h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 4h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 5¢ $24 4h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 3¢ $34 4h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 9¢ $53 4h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 11¢ $61 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 7¢ $33 4h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $37 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $28 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 5h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? SELL Yes 3¢ $31 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.96 · official $179.96 (match) · 269 history records