Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:08:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
94 0x946b…2e06 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$29 (+7%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$54
other 28% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +23.9% +12.1% 54% 54% +22.8%
≤30d 13 +23.9% +12.1% 54% 54% +22.8%
≤90d 13 +23.9% +12.1% 54% 54% +22.8%
all 13 +23.9% +12.1% 54% 54% +22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.1% 54% +22.8%
10% +1.4% 54% +11.0%
15% -8.4% 54% +0.3%
20% -17.4% 54% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$15 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 56¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 59¢ 60¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 80¢ 80¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Yes 37¢ 36¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0 Jun 23 $31 +$73 +239%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$25 +100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$1 -7%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$19 +93%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$14 +70%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $20 +$13 +65%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $34 +$35 +105%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $9 +$5 +52%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $9 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $20 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0 BUY 34¢ $20 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 11h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 11h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0 BUY 29¢ $31 13h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $19 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $19 13h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 13h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $20 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 17h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $20 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $34 40h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $31 42h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $14 46h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 46h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $9 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 34¢ $9 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.23 · official $140.23 · 33 history records