Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:45:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9468…c84f weather 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-2%) realized +$1 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +0.9% -8.7% 53% 3% -8.5%
≤30d 45 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 2% -8.8%
≤90d 45 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 2% -8.8%
all 45 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -8.8%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×6.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.12 per $1 lost it wins $4.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Open positions14
Markets (closed)45 / 59
History coverage8d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 22? No 98¢ 97¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? No 96¢ 95¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 22? No 97¢ 99¢ $63 $64 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 21? No 97¢ 98¢ $63 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $63 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 22? No 98¢ 99¢ $58 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 21? No 95¢ 92¢ $53 $51 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 21? No 90¢ 91¢ $43 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 20? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? No 92¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 20? Jun 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 22? Jun 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $33 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 22? Jun 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 22? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 21? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 20? Jun 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $22 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 20? Jun 19 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 20? Jun 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 18? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 100°F or higher on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 77°F or below on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 15? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $6 22m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $6 22m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $28 22m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $15 47m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $10 51m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $25 51m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $60 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $63 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $53 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $60 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $63 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $63 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $53 9h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $11 9h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $9 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $20 10h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $13 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.26 · official $554.60 (match) · 160 history records