Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
94 0x9466…1f15 sports 522 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$423 (+2%) realized +$423 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%246W / 268L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$305
30 days+$513
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$731
crypto 26% −$282
other 3% −$47
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.0% -5.9% 47% 47% -8.4%
≤30d 37 +18.6% +7.3% 54% 51% +12.4%
≤90d 132 -4.7% -13.7% 47% 45% -4.0%
all 514 -7.2% -16.1% 48% 41% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 41% -7.5%
10% -24.1% 36% -16.4%
15% -31.4% 32% -24.4%
20% -38.2% 29% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$23 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$423
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses246 / 268
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions1
Markets (closed)514 / 522
History coverage221d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $81 −$80 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$15 +76%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $31 +$55 +180%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$86 +84%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$32 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$55 +108%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$61 +596%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $133 +$157 +119%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $30 +$32 +104%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 12 $51 +$49 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $102 +$68 +66%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $148 +$146 +99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $61 +$20 +32%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 03 $66 −$65 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $304 +$187 +62%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $30 +$3 +10%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $51 +$47 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 28 $25 +$17 +66%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 28 $102 +$103 +101%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $66 −$65 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $30 +$25 +83%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 24 $66 −$65 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 23 $66 −$65 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 23 $20 −$5 -25%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $36 −$25 -70%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $91 −$68 -74%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 21 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 21 $5 +$8 +158%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 21 $15 +$11 +73%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 20 $15 +$11 +70%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 20 $51 +$49 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY 13¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $20 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $31 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South BUY $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win o BUY 25¢ $31 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $101 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 47¢ $51 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 41¢ $51 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 38¢ $31 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 58¢ $51 7d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 14¢ $10 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 10¢ $21 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 87¢ $87 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $31 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.51 · official $49.51 (match) · 1440 history records