Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:49:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x9463…f393
politics · 40 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$11 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage480d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $47 $46 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -16%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $63 +$3 +5%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 24 $17 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $11 −$2 -15%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $69 −$4 -6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $234 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $240 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $257 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $263 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $126 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Mar 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jan 31 $7 −$1 -15%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $4 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 04 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $5 $0 +10%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C May 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 28 $7 $0 -1%
Georgia vs. South Carolina Mar 04 $17 −$15 -90%
Devils vs. Stars Mar 04 $22 $0 +1%
Will Trump say 'terrible' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 38-42m viewers? Mar 04 $17 $0 +1%
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Stetson Mar 04 $11 +$11 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 73% −$2
world 9% −$2
sports 7% −$8
tech 4% +$3
finance 4% −$1
other 3% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $47 1h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 39h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 47h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $19 4d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the SELL No 48¢ $38 47d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the BUY No 49¢ $38 47d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 47d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 47d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 86¢ $63 49d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most SELL Yes 12¢ $17 49d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 12¢ $17 49d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1 52d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $30 52d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $30 52d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $63 52d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL No 12¢ $9 52d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY No 14¢ $11 53d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL Yes 77¢ $64 54d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY Yes 82¢ $69 54d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 84¢ $212 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.6% -12.8% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 5 -3.6% -12.8% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 18 -1.8% -11.2% 17% 0% -9.7%
all 39 -0.8% -10.3% 28% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -10.0%
10% -18.9% 3% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 3% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.90 · official $45.90 (match) · 117 history records