Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
94 0x945e…e42a sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$331 (-7%) realized −$332 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days+$622
14 days+$622
30 days+$622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$434
world 15% −$14
other 6% −$178
crypto 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +44.7% +30.9% 30% 30% +70.5%
≤30d 23 +44.7% +30.9% 30% 30% +70.5%
≤90d 24 +43.0% +29.3% 33% 29% +32.5%
all 32 +28.8% +16.5% 44% 38% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.5% 38% -5.4%
10% +5.4% 25% -14.5%
15% -4.8% 22% -22.8%
20% -14.1% 19% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$64 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$332
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage158d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 27¢ 28¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 22¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -94%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 +$85 +276%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 17 $10 −$3 -28%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -91%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$21 +41%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$155 +304%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $10 −$3 -26%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$120 +234%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win o Jun 15 $51 +$540 +1052%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Mar 21 $672 +$16 +2%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $300 +$48 +16%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jan 31 $500 +$88 +18%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Jan 29 $500 −$500 -100%
ASB Classic: Sebastian Baez vs Jakub Mensik Jan 17 $968 +$156 +16%
ASB Classic: Hamad Medjedovic vs Jakub Mensik Jan 14 $140 +$21 +15%
ASB Classic: Cameron Norrie vs Hugo Gaston Jan 12 $223 +$52 +23%
ASB Classic: Emilio Nava vs Sebastian Baez Jan 12 $307 −$307 -100%
ASB Classic: Elina Svitolina vs Xinyu Wang Jan 11 $141 +$4 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No $10 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 13h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 26¢ $31 33h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 53¢ $51 33h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No $7 35h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $1 35h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $71 35h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $206 35h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway $10 35h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $20 36h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 42¢ $41 36h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 70¢ $50 36h
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No $8 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $171 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No $9 2d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No $1 2d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.93 · official $110.93 (match) · 76 history records