Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x945e…db17 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 110L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$22
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$11
sports 24% −$18
other 23% −$16
crypto 7% −$6
finance 5% −$4
culture 4% −$1
world 4% −$2
economics 4% −$3
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.8% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 65 -0.8% -10.2% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 111 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 128 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage98d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $54 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $79 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $56 $0 -1%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $188 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $564 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $95 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $150 −$3 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 11 $27 −$1 -4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 10 $56 −$1 -1%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 07 $54 −$3 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 07 $45 $0 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $114 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $159 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $249 $0 +0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $91 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $140 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $241 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $265 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $63 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $52 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $0 5h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 6h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $52 14h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $5 14h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $5 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 27h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $40 27h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $41 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 39h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $55 39h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $56 46h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $37 46h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $52 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $52 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $49 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $45 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $45 3d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $53 3d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $53 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.46 · official $44.46 (match) · 518 history records