Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x945e…6ca5 crypto 1437 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$117 (-3%) realized −$114 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate83%1193W / 240L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$13
other 11% −$20
sports 10% +$19
weather 1% −$27
world 1% +$2
politics 1% −$17
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +9.0% -1.4% 41% 38% -0.5%
≤30d 69 +9.0% -1.4% 41% 38% -0.5%
≤90d 1433 -1.4% -10.8% 83% 15% -10.6%
all 1433 -1.4% -10.8% 83% 15% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 15% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 7% -19.1%
15% -27.1% 5% -26.9%
20% -34.2% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$114
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1193 / 240
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1433 / 1437
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 34¢ 27¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 32¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 28¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 31¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$5 +217%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$5 +218%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$5 +218%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +198%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$5 +236%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +130%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +190%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +252%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +173%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +173%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +228%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +178%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $7 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 16m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 16m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 21m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.66 · official $6.44 · 3500 history records