Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:06:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x945b…b561
crypto · 883 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$21 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses505 / 356
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions21
Markets (closed)861 / 883
History coverage66d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 21 History 861 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$38
14 days−$30
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 62¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 77¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 62¢ 61¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -82%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 $0 +39%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -36%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$8 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -74%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$5 +124%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 57% +$5
sports 22% +$25
other 11% −$41
weather 3% −$5
politics 3% −$6
finance 2% +$1
world 1% +$2
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 100¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 5h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6h
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 70¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 270 -12.1% -20.5% 51% 48% -17.0%
≤30d 359 -12.3% -20.6% 50% 46% -17.5%
≤90d 861 -5.6% -14.6% 59% 51% -10.4%
all 861 -5.6% -14.6% 59% 51% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 51% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 39% -19.0%
15% -30.3% 25% -26.8%
20% -37.1% 18% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.97 · official $20.97 (match) · 2210 history records