Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x945b…178b sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-14%) realized +$7 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$53
crypto 31% +$6
world 9% −$3
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -36.2% -42.3% 50% 50% -40.9%
≤30d 4 -36.2% -42.3% 50% 50% -40.9%
≤90d 4 -36.2% -42.3% 50% 50% -40.9%
all 4 -36.2% -42.3% 50% 50% -40.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.3% 50% -40.9%
10% -47.8% 0% -46.5%
15% -52.8% 0% -51.7%
20% -57.5% 0% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 15¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Over 62¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Miami Marlins 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch Jun 17 $42 −$32 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch SELL No 16¢ $11 5m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 62¢ $17 27m
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) BUY Miami Marlins 21¢ $3 28m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 49m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 15¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch BUY No 62¢ $42 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 16h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 36¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.59 · official $9.59 (match) · 12 history records