Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x945a…a881 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$367 (-14%) realized −$361 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$397
sports 45% +$48
crypto 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -36.5% -42.6% 38% 29% -26.1%
≤30d 21 -36.5% -42.6% 38% 29% -26.1%
≤90d 21 -36.5% -42.6% 38% 29% -26.1%
all 21 -36.5% -42.6% 38% 29% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 29% -26.1%
10% -48.1% 24% -33.2%
15% -53.1% 5% -39.6%
20% -57.7% 5% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -90% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$47 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$584
Realized−$361
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions9
Markets (closed)21 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 64¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 41¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$33 +32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$17 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $201 +$55 +27%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $606 +$37 +6%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$42 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $200 +$17 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$11 +21%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $101 +$28 +27%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$192 -95%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $51 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $10 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $101 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 13h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 96¢ $581 30h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $101 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $8 43h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 78¢ $101 44h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 94¢ $100 45h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $100 45h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $201 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $21 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $21 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 82¢ $101 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $50 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $200 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $583.75 · official $584.52 (match) · 42 history records