Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9458…95b0 crypto 464 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-1%) realized −$68 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate51%236W / 225L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$7
14 days−$9
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$47
crypto 34% −$66
politics 2% $0
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -18.3% -26.1% 36% 18% -15.0%
≤30d 45 -31.9% -38.4% 31% 18% -20.5%
≤90d 306 -20.2% -27.8% 46% 16% -12.6%
all 461 -11.8% -20.2% 51% 23% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 23% -11.4%
10% -27.8% 15% -19.9%
15% -34.8% 11% -27.6%
20% -41.2% 8% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses236 / 225
Open positions3
Markets (closed)461 / 464
History coverage115d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 461 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $2 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 -45%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 $0 +45%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 $0 -10%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$5 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 -11%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$2 +156%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +112%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $71 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +130%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $9 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 2PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1PM ET May 31 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1PM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $73 −$27 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $86 −$11 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down on May 23? May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 23? May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $89 +$6 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $20 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $4 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 9h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 12h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 27h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.09 · official $27.09 (match) · 1428 history records