Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:45:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9457…b41b sports 355 markets active 1h ago coverage 651d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%39W / 315L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$23
politics 27% −$13
sports 26% −$12
economics 7% −$6
crypto 4% −$6
world 3% −$2
tech 2% −$4
culture 2% −$4
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.9% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 81 -1.1% -10.5% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 93 -1.0% -10.4% 12% 0% -10.1%
all 354 -0.3% -9.8% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

651d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses39 / 315
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)354 / 355
History coverage651d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $61 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $52 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 16 $98 −$1 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $41 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $339 −$2 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $120 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $123 −$2 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $96 −$1 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $58 −$1 -2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $58 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $168 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $113 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 -1%
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 09 $8 −$2 -21%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $49 −$1 -2%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 09 $52 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $263 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $59 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 06 $57 −$1 -3%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $111 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $93 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $62 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 05 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 04 $43 $0 +1%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $53 $0 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $58 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $31 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 1h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 89¢ $57 1h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 91¢ $59 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $61 17h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $51 17h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $52 23h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $64 24h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $65 30h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 30h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $32 38h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $14 38h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $45 39h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 43h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $45 43h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $46 47h
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $41 2d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $41 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $49 2d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $51 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 2d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $50 2d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $51 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $52 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $53 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $53 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $53 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.82 · official $46.82 (match) · 1297 history records