Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9455…7def sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-9%) realized −$16 · open −$51
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -37.8% -43.8% 29% 29% -23.7%
≤30d 7 -37.8% -43.8% 29% 29% -23.7%
≤90d 7 -37.8% -43.8% 29% 29% -23.7%
all 7 -37.8% -43.8% 29% 29% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.8% 29% -23.7%
10% -49.1% 29% -31.0%
15% -54.1% 0% -37.6%
20% -58.6% 0% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$20 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 25¢ 26¢ $86 $92 +$6 (+7%)
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Sakura Hosogi Naho Sato 65¢ 78¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Varvara Panshina 72¢ 24¢ $100 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Klosters: Jan Kumstat vs Corentin Denolly Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Jun 17 $24 −$24 -98%
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$3 -3%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 16 $203 −$20 -10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.71 · official $370.95 · 19 history records