Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9453…1a48 world 421 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 140d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,021 (-1%) realized −$1,849 · open −$172
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate56%234W / 183L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$951per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3,664now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,172
7 days+$1,120
14 days+$1,695
30 days−$5,978
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$6,482
other 22% +$6,421
politics 7% −$5,093
economics 2% +$124
sports 2% −$533
tech 1% +$49
finance 1% −$28
crypto 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +11.7% +1.1% 71% 53% -5.7%
≤30d 64 -3.4% -12.6% 59% 36% -15.8%
≤90d 231 -0.4% -9.9% 58% 35% -9.5%
all 417 -0.7% -10.2% 56% 34% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 34% -10.8%
10% -18.8% 18% -19.3%
15% ← realistic here -26.6% 11% -27.1%
20% -33.8% 8% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,092) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$294 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$3,664
Realized−$1,849
Unrealized−$172
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses234 / 183
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions4
Markets (closed)417 / 421
History coverage141d ⚠
Avg bet$951
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 417 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes $3,274 $3,204 −$70 (-2%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Yes 10¢ $324 $176 −$148 (-46%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes $138 $165 +$27 (+20%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 34¢ 40¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $3,339 −$315 -9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $3,147 +$640 +20%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $972 −$212 -22%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2,867 +$1,321 +46%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $580 −$261 -45%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $5,586 −$3,718 -66%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $2,006 +$373 +19%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $131 −$131 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,199 +$2,299 +105%
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $1,436 +$5 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,522 +$374 +25%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $491 +$57 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $540 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $96 +$63 +65%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $677 +$23 +3%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $350 +$350 +100%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 12 $535 +$251 +47%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $102 −$18 -18%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 11 $380 −$19 -5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,274 +$158 +12%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $979 −$674 -69%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $646 −$1 -0%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 10 $206 −$121 -59%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $2,543 +$153 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $2,437 +$430 +18%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $707 +$422 +60%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $259 −$24 -9%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $559 +$18 +3%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 06 $196 +$31 +16%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $205 +$35 +17%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $209 +$9 +4%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $443 +$33 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 05 $745 −$45 -6%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 04 $896 +$188 +21%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $3,386 −$999 -30%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 04 $108 −$26 -24%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 03 $551 +$70 +13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $855 −$855 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $916 +$224 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $404 +$20 +5%
Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week? May 31 $400 +$4 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $4,664 −$4,399 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $76 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $2,575 +$446 +17%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $1,931 −$371 -19%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 29 $1,666 +$22 +1%
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd not IPO before June 2026? May 28 $153 −$142 -92%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $9,302 −$786 -8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 28 $1,100 −$186 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $1,687 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 34¢ $100 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 32¢ $253 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 24¢ $50 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 34¢ $200 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 10¢ $125 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $0 16h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $5 16h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $65 16h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $90 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $10 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $372 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $257 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes $138 18h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $695 18h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 18h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 18h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 18h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,931 18h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,667 19h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No $93 19h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $58 19h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $14 19h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $100 19h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $500 19h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $500 20h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,377 21h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $70 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,664.09 · official $3,649.13 (match) · 3500 history records