Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:07:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
94 0x9453…22cf sports 278 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,829 (-10%) realized −$1,021 · open −$3,808
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%119W / 156L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$802
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$1,838
other 38% +$1,828
crypto 10% −$4,037
world 6% +$190
weather 2% −$414
culture 1% −$66
finance 1% −$296
politics 1% −$16
economics 0% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +23.4% +11.6% 38% 38% +21.8%
≤90d 70 -27.9% -34.8% 31% 16% -7.3%
all 275 -9.5% -18.1% 43% 37% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 37% -11.6%
10% -26.0% 36% -20.1%
15% -33.1% 34% -27.8%
20% -39.7% 30% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$97 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$1,142
Realized−$1,021
Unrealized−$3,808
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses119 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions3
Markets (closed)275 / 278
History coverage268d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ $3,078 $506 −$2,571 (-84%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ $1,653 $411 −$1,242 (-75%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $220 $225 +$5 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $158 −$156 -99%
Will Salford City FC win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $209 −$205 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $207 +$518 +250%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $551 +$514 +93%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $384 −$377 -98%
Will Stockport County FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $270 −$265 -98%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $299 +$1,031 +344%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 9? May 23 $257 −$257 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or higher on May 8? May 09 $312 +$23 +7%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $364 +$106 +29%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 30 $910 +$86 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $1,164 +$102 +9%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $933 +$63 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 30 $425 +$74 +17%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t Apr 30 $192 −$145 -76%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 28 $800 +$30 +4%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 28 $70 −$67 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 28 $54 −$38 -71%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $209 −$96 -46%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $31 −$12 -37%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $50 −$20 -40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 27? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 27? Apr 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 28 $18 −$7 -37%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $39 +$1 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Apr 27 $70 −$37 -53%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 27 $529 −$135 -26%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Apr 27 $830 $0 -0%
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $125 −$125 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $301 −$301 -100%
Coventry City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $520 +$500 +96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 25? Apr 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Madrid Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marin Cilic Apr 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $580 +$420 +72%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 25? Apr 25 $20 −$19 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1,180 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1,180 +$20 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 26? Apr 25 $110 −$39 -36%
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $380 +$620 +163%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $65 $0 +0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $910 +$90 +10%
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $432 +$6 +1%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $265 +$237 +90%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $590 −$8 -1%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $1,020 −$10 -1%
Will AEK win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $220 −$220 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $223 1h
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $158 17d
Will Salford City FC win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $159 25d
Will Salford City FC win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 25d
Will Salford City FC win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 25d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $551 26d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $207 26d
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $384 26d
Will Stockport County FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 34¢ $270 26d
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 22¢ $299 27d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 9? BUY No 88¢ $117 42d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 9? BUY No 85¢ $42 42d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 9? BUY No 84¢ $99 42d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or higher on May 8? BUY No 93¢ $312 43d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 77¢ $364 44d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $996 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $998 50d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $996 50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $499 50d
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t SELL Yes $47 50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 83¢ $830 52d
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No $3 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? SELL Yes $16 52d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $113 52d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 52d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $30 52d
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes $11 52d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 52d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? SELL Yes $33 53d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 29¢ $394 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,142.44 · official $1,142.44 (match) · 975 history records