trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 37¢ | 36¢ | $12 | $12 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 64¢ | 64¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | No | 63¢ | 20¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-68%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 09 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 07 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 07 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 06 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 06 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? | Jun 21 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 21 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 07 | $71 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? | Apr 05 | $70 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 03 | $70 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 03 | $70 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 01 | $70 | $0 | -0% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 31 | $70 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? | Mar 29 | $70 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? | Mar 25 | $69 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? | Mar 24 | $68 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 24 | $68 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump say "Fart" during Digital Asset Summit? | Mar 21 | $67 | +$1 | +1% |
| Tulane vs. Wichita State | Mar 20 | $42 | +$25 | +59% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 33% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 29% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 29% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 24 | +3.2% | -6.6% | 58% | 4% | -6.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.6% | 4% | -6.9% |
| 10% | -15.5% | 4% | -15.8% |
| 15% | -23.7% | 4% | -23.9% |
| 20% | -31.2% | 4% | -31.4% |