Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x944e…2918 crypto 893 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$107 (-1%) realized −$101 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate68%604W / 287L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$60
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$93
sports 16% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +52.1% +37.6% 75% 75% +66.1%
≤30d 4 +52.1% +37.6% 75% 75% +66.1%
≤90d 211 -11.9% -20.3% 61% 36% -15.6%
all 891 -3.4% -12.6% 68% 42% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 42% -10.7%
10% -20.9% 25% -19.2%
15% -28.6% 18% -27.0%
20% -35.6% 12% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses604 / 287
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)891 / 893
History coverage107d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 891 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 37¢ 48¢ $58 $75 +$17 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 22¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $34 +$49 +145%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $15 +$18 +121%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $29 −$12 -42%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $41 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12PM ET May 17 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 17 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 17 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9PM ET May 17 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8PM ET May 17 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 16 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 16 $5 +$7 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 16 $19 −$9 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 16 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 16 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 16 $9 +$14 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 16 $2 +$2 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $60 29m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $10 54m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $83 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $34 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $34 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 44¢ $15 5h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 21¢ $5 5h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $7 5h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 62¢ $27 5h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 36¢ $16 5h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 21¢ $3 6h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 27¢ $20 6h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 20¢ $24 6h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 39¢ $24 6h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 22¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $17 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $14 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $14 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $13 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $13 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.13 · official $75.13 (match) · 2509 history records