Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x944d…55ce crypto 783 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$986 (-8%) realized −$986 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate34%347W / 670L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,153
7 days−$1,153
14 days−$1,534
30 days−$1,541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$868
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 240 -97.6% -97.8% 1% 1% -85.4%
≤30d 425 -62.6% -66.1% 19% 17% -44.0%
≤90d 1017 -27.3% -34.2% 34% 27% -22.8%
all 1017 -27.3% -34.2% 34% 27% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.2% 27% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -40.5% 22% -30.2%
15% -46.2% 17% -37.0%
20% -51.5% 12% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$986
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses347 / 670
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1017 / 783
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1017 Trades
no open positions (238 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $14 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $31 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $18 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $31 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $17 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $9 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $13 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $17 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $12 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $12 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records