Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x944a…a5a9 crypto 45 markets active 9h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%44W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$1
other 31% +$1
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 28 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 44 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 44 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses44 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage42d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 12? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 41°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 27? May 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 22? May 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 19? May 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 17? May 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 15? May 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App May 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? May 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 11? May 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 10? May 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? May 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 9h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $21 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $21 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $16 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $20 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $17 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $20 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $21 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $17 14d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 19d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 22d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 41°C or higher on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $21 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $21 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 28d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 28d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $29 29d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.75 · official $10.75 (match) · 91 history records