Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x9449…d829
other · 280 markets active 5d ago
0.0score
+$68 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$68 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses27 / 252
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Est. fees paid−$2,367
Open positions1
Markets (closed)279 / 280
History coverage84d
Avg bet$485
Trades / day41.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 279 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$79
14 days+$79
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Durham - Completed match? No 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 23, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $946 −$4 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $3,891 +$16 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $2,034 −$2 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $947 +$1 +0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $733 +$12 +2%
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $581 $0 -0%
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $1,521 −$6 -0%
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $2,084 +$11 +0%
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $1,659 +$12 +1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $5,038 +$4 +0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $5,296 +$43 +1%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $188 $0 +0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $268 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $5,507 −$6 -0%
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $62 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $4,591 −$1 -0%
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $350 $0 -0%
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $446 $0 +0%
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $694 −$2 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $289 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1,048 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $349 $0 -0%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $131 +$2 +1%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $1,379 +$3 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? May 31 $1,061 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1,199 −$3 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? May 30 $2,383 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $871 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $2,326 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? May 22 $432 $0 +0%
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 22 $162 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 23, 2026? May 22 $432 $0 -0%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 22 $365 $0 -0%
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 22 $438 $0 -0%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 22 $442 −$5 -1%
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Durham - Completed match? May 22 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $438 −$1 -0%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Hampshire - Completed match? May 21 $465 $0 +0%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Glamorgan - Completed match? May 21 $477 $0 +0%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Lancashire - Completed match? May 21 $478 $0 +0%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Warwickshire - Completed match? May 21 $459 $0 +0%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? May 20 $369 $0 -0%
Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? May 20 $375 −$7 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% +$74
sports 38% −$3
other 16% −$10
politics 7% +$7
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $31 5d
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 5d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $158 5d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $158 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $76 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $76 5d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $43 5d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $43 5d
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 5d
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $25 5d
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $32 5d
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $32 5d
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $39 5d
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $39 5d
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $46 5d
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $46 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $80 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $80 5d
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $81 5d
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $81 5d
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $81 5d
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $82 5d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $168 5d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $168 5d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $232 5d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $232 5d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.2% -9.4% 41% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 61 -4.9% -14.0% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 279 -1.2% -10.6% 10% 1% -9.5%
all 279 -1.2% -10.6% 10% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 1% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records