Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:00:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9448…b72e crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate77%37W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$24
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$4
other 22% −$3
weather 13% −$6
world 13% −$17
tech 1% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -7.5% -16.3% 33% 0% -17.5%
≤30d 30 -4.3% -13.5% 63% 3% -15.3%
≤90d 48 -2.6% -11.8% 77% 2% -12.1%
all 48 -2.6% -11.8% 77% 2% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 2% -12.1%
10% -20.3% 2% -20.5%
15% -28.0% 2% -28.2%
20% -35.0% 2% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses37 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage82d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $88 −$13 -15%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $9 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? Jun 21 $45 −$6 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? Jun 21 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 23? Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 21 $17 −$1 -5%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 21 $13 −$3 -23%
Will Dplus Challengers Win Asia Masters 2026 Jun 21 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 21 $14 −$2 -14%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $13 −$2 -15%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -8%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 10 $7 +$4 +58%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 1? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 26? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 26? Jun 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 26? Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 22? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 22? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 25 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 22? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 20? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? May 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 18 $85 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 23? Apr 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 22? Apr 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? Apr 22 $50 $0 +0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 7? Apr 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? Apr 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 05 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $43 31m
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $20 31m
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $13 31m
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $88 31m
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $8 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? SELL No 40¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? BUY No 45¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 23? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 SELL Yes 16¢ $15 2h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 BUY Yes 17¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 10¢ $10 2h
Will Dplus Challengers Win Asia Masters 2026 SELL Yes 40¢ $39 2h
Will Dplus Challengers Win Asia Masters 2026 BUY Yes 40¢ $40 2h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 13¢ $13 2h
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 2h
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $11 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $13 3h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $11 3h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $12 3h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $33 3h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $32 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records