Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9444…1201 other 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$20
14 days−$31
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$39
sports 24% −$23
politics 7% −$14
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$4
world 4% −$3
crypto 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 262 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)262 / 262
History coverage138d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 262 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $223 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $709 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $433 −$2 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $625 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $500 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $478 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $249 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $333 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $136 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $632 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $126 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $194 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $266 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $231 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $452 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $230 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $438 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $728 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $1,347 −$3 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $221 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $147 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $378 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $133 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $244 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $964 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $132 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 04 $342 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $153 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $235 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 54m
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 5h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 7h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 8h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 10h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 12h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $57 13h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 14h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 17h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 19h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 19h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 22h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 24h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 31h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 32h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 35h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 37h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 38h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 39h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 41h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 42h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1436 history records