Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9443…bcc4 crypto 32 markets active 13d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,115 (-33%) realized −$4,115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$393per market
Trades / day151.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,508
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 32 -34.4% -40.6% 25% 25% -40.8%
≤90d 32 -34.4% -40.6% 25% 25% -40.8%
all 32 -34.4% -40.6% 25% 25% -40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.6% 25% -40.8%
10% ← realistic here -46.3% 25% -46.5%
15% -51.5% 22% -51.7%
20% -56.2% 19% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$520) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$426 vs −$330 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$393
Trades / day151.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $627 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $470 −$143 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $315 −$296 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $315 +$103 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $159 −$150 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $157 −$151 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $156 −$147 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $156 +$234 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $156 +$72 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $258 −$141 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1,039 −$841 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1,067 −$1,012 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1,049 −$927 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1,038 −$347 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $527 −$352 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $520 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $263 −$236 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $94 +$111 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $524 +$1,076 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $261 +$440 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $520 +$682 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $95 −$75 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $489 −$423 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $521 +$690 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $266 −$92 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $245 −$234 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $518 −$500 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $156 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $156 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $156 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $157 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $157 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $157 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $109 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $185 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $33 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $157 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $156 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $157 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $157 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $158 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $337 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $81 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $158 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $158 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $9 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $159 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $6 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $157 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $158 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $158 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $156 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records