Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:31:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9442…96a5 crypto 274 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$118 (+4%) realized +$119 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%135W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$167
14 days+$167
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$128
sports 2% +$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +8.1% -2.2% 50% 50% +22.6%
≤30d 20 +8.1% -2.2% 50% 50% +22.6%
≤90d 227 -6.1% -15.1% 48% 48% -10.6%
all 273 -3.9% -13.0% 49% 49% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 49% -7.7%
10% -21.4% 49% -16.6%
15% -28.9% 49% -24.6%
20% -35.9% 49% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$119
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses135 / 138
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)273 / 274
History coverage91d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 55¢ 50¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $113 +$97 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $29 +$28 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $59 −$57 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$14 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$10 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$6 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $19 +$18 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$181 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 06 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 06 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 06 $29 +$28 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 06 $20 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 06 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 06 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 06 $7 +$7 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 06 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 06 $6 +$6 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 06 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 06 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 06 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 06 $2 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 06 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 06 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 06 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 06 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 06 $8 +$7 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $18 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $113 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $50 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $45 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $57 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $29 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $29 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.61 · official $15.61 (match) · 487 history records