Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:11:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x9442…adcd
weather · 44 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$14 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage33d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 3 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$11
14 days+$17
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 30? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 12? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 30? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 23? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 17? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 4? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 28? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 26? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 24? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $22 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$13 +246%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$4 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$9 +173%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$8 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$8 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 +$7 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 +$6 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $2 +$4 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $3 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 29? May 30 $1 +$3 +276%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? May 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 30? May 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 30? May 29 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $1 +$6 +547%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 28? May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27? May 27 $2 +$3 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 26? May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 24? May 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 23? May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 21? May 22 $1 +$4 +315%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 17? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 16? May 16 $4 −$4 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 13? May 12 $1 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 12? May 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 82% +$14
other 15% −$3
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 4d
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $10 4d
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $11 4d
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $10 4d
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? SELL Yes 75¢ $18 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 7? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 7? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? SELL Yes 72¢ $14 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 6? SELL Yes 63¢ $14 7d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 6? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 6? SELL Yes 92¢ $13 7d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 6? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -40.4% -46.1% 21% 21% -23.4%
≤30d 38 +7.2% -3.0% 34% 34% +3.9%
≤90d 41 +2.4% -7.4% 32% 32% +2.2%
all 41 +2.4% -7.4% 32% 32% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 32% +2.2%
10% -16.3% 32% -7.6%
15% -24.3% 29% -16.5%
20% -31.8% 29% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.37 (match) · 68 history records