Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:49:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
94 0x943f…52ac world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 26L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$1
sports 19% +$11
other 15% +$7
weather 4% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
politics 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.4% -15.3% 0% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 16 +39.5% +26.2% 50% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 16 +39.5% +26.2% 50% 6% -9.2%
all 46 +11.5% +0.9% 43% 9% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 9% -7.7%
10% -8.7% 9% -16.6%
15% -17.6% 9% -24.6%
20% -25.6% 7% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage485d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $14 −$2 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $4 $0 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $52 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $16 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $42 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $42 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $41 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $40 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $3 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday? Jun 23 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $2 $0 -28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Mar 31 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $25 $0 -0%
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April? Mar 29 $28 $0 +1%
Human case of new COVID disease before April? Mar 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 21 $2 $0 -15%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $26 +$1 +2%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? Mar 13 $17 +$10 +54%
Indiana vs. Oregon Mar 11 $12 +$5 +37%
Rhode Island vs. St. Joseph's Mar 04 $13 −$1 -4%
Auburn vs. Texas A&M Mar 04 $13 $0 -2%
UT Martin vs. Tennessee Tech Mar 04 $12 $0 +0%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
West Virginia vs. Utah Mar 04 $17 −$4 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 5? Mar 04 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Trump say 'mineral' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $18 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Mar 04 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 4? Mar 04 $20 −$1 -6%
Senators vs. Blackhawks Mar 04 $3 $0 +0%
Drexel vs. Delaware Mar 04 $11 +$11 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $44 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $46 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $46 16h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $32 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $32 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $36 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $11 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $46 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.68 · official $43.68 (match) · 140 history records