Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x943c…1d17 world 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,802 (-5%) realized −$18,336 · open +$1,534
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate54%63W / 53L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,421per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$28,584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,217
14 days+$1,366
30 days−$11,622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$9,017
other 17% −$6,428
politics 8% −$1,580
sports 7% −$239
culture 3% +$146
crypto 0% +$25
finance 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.9% -3.3% 100% 33% +0.6%
≤30d 16 -21.1% -28.6% 62% 31% -32.2%
≤90d 95 -13.5% -21.8% 54% 29% -16.8%
all 116 -9.8% -18.4% 54% 33% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 33% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 19% -23.6%
15% -33.3% 14% -30.9%
20% -39.9% 12% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$3,071) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$465 vs −$921 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$28,584
Realized−$18,336
Unrealized+$1,534
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses63 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)116 / 134
History coverage165d
Avg bet$2,421
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $15,190 $15,927 +$736 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $6,838 $7,403 +$565 (+8%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Yes 49¢ 58¢ $2,377 $2,841 +$464 (+20%)
Spain snap election called in 2026? No 62¢ 56¢ $1,172 $1,064 −$107 (-9%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 27¢ 24¢ $324 $294 −$30 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $200 $226 +$25 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $153 $165 +$13 (+8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $139 +$38 (+38%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $151 $121 −$30 (-20%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $45 $55 +$9 (+21%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 50¢ 51¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 33¢ 8¢ $191 $49 −$142 (-74%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 78¢ $6 $12 +$7 (+121%)
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $6 −$44 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 15 $91 +$7 +7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $164 +$3 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 14 $10,662 +$1,207 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $372 +$38 +10%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 07 $1,729 +$111 +6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 01 $490 −$490 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $2,112 +$288 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $4,504 +$758 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $3,120 −$753 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $1,298 +$110 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $1,405 −$950 -68%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $18,950 −$10,525 -56%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? May 24 $1,500 −$1,431 -95%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? May 24 $46 +$14 +29%
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? May 24 $138 +$31 +23%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? May 19 $5,739 −$4,109 -72%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 17 $5,518 −$467 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 16 $583 +$60 +10%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? May 15 $2,914 −$2,914 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? May 15 $2,221 −$2,221 -100%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? May 08 $949 +$55 +6%
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? May 08 $48 +$8 +18%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 07 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $2,467 −$891 -36%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 07 $6,301 +$415 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $8,143 +$1,454 +18%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 06 $16,720 +$283 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 05 $4,581 −$4 -0%
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? May 03 $1,056 +$24 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 02 $150 −$150 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 02 $3,071 +$1,560 +51%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 02 $3,536 +$2,867 +81%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $574 +$57 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $105 +$120 +114%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Apr 27 $346 +$16 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $9,122 −$9,122 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 25 $496 −$112 -23%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 25 $422 −$304 -72%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $4,269 +$1,279 +30%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Apr 23 $1,640 +$65 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $3,644 −$206 -6%
Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? Apr 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $200 +$212 +106%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 16 $800 −$30 -4%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $5,018 +$248 +5%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? Apr 15 $2,886 +$1,914 +66%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Apr 12 $930 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,020 2m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $97 2m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $12 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $19 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $865 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $79 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $892 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,040 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $550 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $1,100 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $1,100 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $1,100 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $1,100 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $1,100 18h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 31h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $195 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $117 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,584.48 · official $28,737.81 (match) · 2175 history records