Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x943b…e35e sports 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+1%) realized +$103 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%31W / 60L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$445
14 days−$627
30 days+$1,280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$1,513
other 18% −$361
crypto 10% −$503
world 1% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 78 +9.8% -0.7% 36% 36% +12.6%
≤90d 91 -0.1% -9.7% 34% 34% +0.5%
all 91 -0.1% -9.7% 34% 34% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 34% +0.5%
10% -18.3% 34% -9.1%
15% -26.2% 34% -17.9%
20% -33.4% 34% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$63 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$103
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses31 / 60
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 103
History coverage35d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 1¢ $60 $2 −$58 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $60 −$59 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $48 −$47 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $49 −$49 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $101 −$99 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $100 +$150 +150%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $144 +$216 +150%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina Jun 17 $51 +$385 +750%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$60 +150%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $96 +$275 +286%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $149 −$146 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Qatar be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $100 −$57 -57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $0 +$1 +233%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $92 −$86 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $285 +$903 +317%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $98 +$147 +150%
Spread: Venezuela (-1.5) Jun 10 $72 +$168 +233%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Hungary leading at halftime? Jun 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $87 +$202 +232%
Spread: Cambodia (-2.5) Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 09 $50 +$75 +150%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $100 +$100 +100%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $49 −$49 -100%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $60 +$88 +147%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 7h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 20¢ $50 10h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $43 10h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 10h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 10h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $6 10h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $39 34h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: BUY 34¢ $49 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $60 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $48 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND France vs BUY 15¢ $78 4d
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $49 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at h BUY 14¢ $50 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $17 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $0 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $3 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $6 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 6d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $101 6d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Türki BUY 22¢ $49 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Sco BUY 28¢ $99 7d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 7d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 29¢ $100 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Canada BUY 15¢ $62 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $1 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $4 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $16 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $14 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.95 · official $1.95 (match) · 292 history records