Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:27:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
94 0x9439…bc47 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+19%) realized +$19 · open +$55
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$1
world 30% −$9
politics 29% +$66
finance 3% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -26.9% -33.8% 50% 50% -0.3%
≤90d 7 -14.3% -22.4% 57% 43% -3.5%
all 7 -14.3% -22.4% 57% 43% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 43% -3.5%
10% -29.9% 29% -12.7%
15% -36.6% 14% -21.1%
20% -42.8% 0% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions21
Markets (closed)7 / 28
History coverage41d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 32¢ 92¢ $34 $97 +$63 (+187%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ $85 $73 −$12 (-14%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 32¢ 95¢ $14 $42 +$28 (+198%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 98¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+48%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 99¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 57¢ 51¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? Yes 38¢ 17¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-56%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 90¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+167%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? Yes 35¢ 45¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+28%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 17¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-97%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 15¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 21¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 03 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $3 −$2 -82%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 21 $21 +$2 +11%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $6 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 11d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? SELL Yes $1 26d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $2 27d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $10 27d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 30d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 31d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $50 32d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $23 32d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 33d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 33d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 34d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $10 34d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 35d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 35d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 43¢ $3 37d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 31¢ $1 38d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 14¢ $2 38d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 13¢ $1 38d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 21¢ $2 38d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 21¢ $5 38d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 24¢ $2 38d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 14¢ $1 38d
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 13¢ $1 38d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 14¢ $3 38d
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 39d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 39d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $10 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.88 · official $329.88 (match) · 98 history records