Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x9437…e75f other 506 markets active 1h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,429 (+1%) realized +$3,904 · open −$2,475
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%362W / 123L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$25,102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$182
14 days−$82
30 days+$1,842
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$369
world 18% −$945
other 16% −$263
economics 12% +$1,339
finance 8% +$1,010
culture 5% +$38
politics 3% +$287
sports 2% +$70
tech 2% +$451
weather 2% −$324
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.9% -1.4% 100% 25% -3.1%
≤30d 25 -6.9% -15.8% 76% 36% -3.2%
≤90d 56 -5.5% -14.5% 75% 34% -6.3%
all 485 -3.4% -12.6% 75% 50% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 50% -6.9%
10% -20.9% 32% -15.8%
15% -28.6% 16% -23.9%
20% -35.6% 7% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$67 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$25,102
Realized+$3,904
Unrealized−$2,475
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses362 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)485 / 506
History coverage219d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 88¢ 80¢ $4,292 $3,872 −$419 (-10%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $2,016 $2,172 +$156 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $1,890 $1,989 +$99 (+5%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 89¢ 48¢ $3,313 $1,762 −$1,550 (-47%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $1,620 $1,647 +$27 (+2%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 97¢ 95¢ $1,548 $1,519 −$29 (-2%)
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $1,224 $1,402 +$178 (+15%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $1,285 $1,350 +$65 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $1,315 $1,323 +$9 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $1,232 $1,267 +$35 (+3%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,092 $1,110 +$18 (+2%)
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? No 90¢ 94¢ $925 $964 +$40 (+4%)
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? No 88¢ 88¢ $883 $880 −$3 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 91¢ 100¢ $735 $805 +$70 (+10%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $700 $691 −$9 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 75¢ 93¢ $510 $638 +$128 (+25%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $530 $561 +$31 (+6%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 89¢ 99¢ $410 $453 +$42 (+10%)
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? No 74¢ 72¢ $312 $302 −$9 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 6¢ $1,615 $247 −$1,368 (-85%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 79¢ 88¢ $131 $147 +$15 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 25 $1,548 +$140 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $486 +$14 +3%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $43 +$9 +20%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $482 +$20 +4%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,073 +$22 +2%
US recession by end of 2026? Jun 17 $1,260 +$278 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 15 $905 −$135 -15%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $437 +$14 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 15 $898 −$57 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $162 −$162 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $281 −$281 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 +$10 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $602 +$48 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,946 +$54 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June? Jun 05 $547 −$547 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 04 $4,010 +$1,545 +38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $513 −$513 -100%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? Jun 04 $1,301 +$9 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,404 +$16 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $1,394 +$149 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $861 +$151 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 01 $542 +$164 +30%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 01 $582 +$138 +24%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $1,996 +$204 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 30 $3,180 +$554 +17%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 21 $335 +$36 +11%
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? May 21 $1,305 −$177 -14%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? May 21 $768 −$337 -44%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 11 $165 +$158 +96%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 06 $1,037 +$102 +10%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? May 03 $498 −$498 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $240 +$10 +4%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $87 +$8 +10%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 01 $1,126 +$104 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,008 +$100 +10%
Clavicular unbanned from Youtube by April 30? May 01 $966 +$34 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $445 +$55 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 01 $1,493 +$203 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $2,025 +$78 +4%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $114 +$48 +42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 29 $2,107 +$279 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 28 $4,437 −$284 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $1,690 +$163 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $493 +$7 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $960 +$40 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 20 $678 +$242 +36%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $2,710 +$37 +1%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $17 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? BUY No 88¢ $883 1h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $1,688 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 80¢ $436 1h
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? BUY No 90¢ $925 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $486 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $43 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $482 2d
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? BUY No 86¢ $534 7d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,095 8d
US recession by end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1,538 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 75¢ $387 8d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,073 9d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? SELL No 57¢ $89 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 78¢ $770 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $840 10d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $40 11d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $437 11d
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? SELL No 73¢ $434 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY No 89¢ $413 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 53¢ $56 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1,332 16d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 97¢ $1,549 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 92¢ $602 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 64¢ $106 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $281 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $996 18d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? BUY No 79¢ $263 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 75¢ $519 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $905 20d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $1,781 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,101.63 · official $25,091.66 (match) · 1362 history records