Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9436…f906 crypto 680 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$584 (-4%) realized −$584 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%396W / 283L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$238
7 days−$238
14 days−$238
30 days−$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$918
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -7.8% -16.6% 54% 54% -17.6%
≤30d 83 -7.8% -16.6% 54% 54% -17.6%
≤90d 646 -2.3% -11.6% 58% 57% -15.4%
all 679 -1.9% -11.3% 58% 56% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 56% -15.6%
10% -19.8% 54% -23.7%
15% -27.5% 46% -31.0%
20% -34.6% 35% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$584
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses396 / 283
Open positions1
Markets (closed)679 / 680
History coverage100d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 679 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 57¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$28 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $78 +$74 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$59 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $82 +$53 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $76 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $76 +$21 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $76 +$21 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $89 −$86 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $77 +$41 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$34 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $114 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $16 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $149 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.44 · official $8.68 · 1492 history records