Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9436…2e4b crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+7%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$26
sports 8% +$2
other 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -34.0% -40.3% 33% 25% -28.0%
≤30d 12 -34.0% -40.3% 33% 25% -28.0%
≤90d 12 -34.0% -40.3% 33% 25% -28.0%
all 12 -34.0% -40.3% 33% 25% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.3% 25% -28.0%
10% ← realistic here -46.0% 25% -34.9%
15% -51.2% 17% -41.2%
20% -56.0% 8% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$8 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $5 +$2 +46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL FOKUS 100¢ $7 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 68¢ $3 21h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 68¢ $5 21h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 56¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records