Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:15:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x9434…d8d8
culture · 60 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$16 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$50 · open −$33
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP culture specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$118
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses37 / 18
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)55 / 60
History coverage62d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 5 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$81
14 days−$98
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage XLG Gaming 30¢ 100¢ $14 $48 +$34 (+233%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 57¢ 100¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+74%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 77¢ 55¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-29%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 54¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $20 +$26 +129%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $29 +$27 +93%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $12 +$18 +152%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $92 −$92 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $34 −$34 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $15 +$34 +228%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $4 −$1 -15%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 -7%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 08 $2 −$2 -85%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 08 $22 +$4 +19%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $10 +$8 +81%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 08 $15 +$6 +37%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -94%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 08 $22 $0 +2%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 05 $8 +$1 +7%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m? Jun 04 $38 +$2 +6%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 23m? Jun 04 $38 $0 +1%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 31m? Jun 04 $11 $0 +3%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 61m and 67m? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 04 $18 +$6 +32%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +22%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -48%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 31 $16 +$1 +6%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 31 $61 −$39 -65%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 23m a May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m? May 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m? May 31 $33 +$1 +2%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5m? May 31 $28 $0 +0%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4.5m and 5m? May 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be g May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 31 $11 +$11 +97%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $55 +$6 +11%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m May 18 $14 +$1 +5%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? May 18 $43 $0 +1%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? May 18 $11 $0 +4%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 4.5m? May 18 $60 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m? May 18 $49 +$2 +4%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 18 $91 +$34 +38%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m? May 16 $6 −$3 -57%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? May 11 $5 $0 -8%
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31? May 11 $7 $0 -1%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? May 11 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30? May 01 $1 −$1 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
culture 53% +$33
sports 26% −$123
world 20% +$108
other 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1 42m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $2 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 77¢ $2 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 77¢ $2 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 77¢ $1 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $38 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $3 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $3 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $1 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $2 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $5 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $2 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $2 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $15 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $2 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $5 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $5 16h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $20 17h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 49¢ $2 24h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 49¢ $36 24h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $4 24h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 53¢ $12 24h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $3 24h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 49¢ $8 31h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 35% -28.7%
≤30d 46 -0.0% -9.6% 72% 26% -14.5%
≤90d 55 +7.1% -3.1% 67% 29% -6.1%
all 55 +7.1% -3.1% 67% 29% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 29% -6.1%
10% -12.4% 25% -15.1%
15% -20.8% 20% -23.3%
20% -28.6% 13% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.23 · official $118.23 (match) · 354 history records