Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x942f…475e crypto 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$105 (+5%) realized +$138 · open −$33
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate63%24W / 14L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$30
politics 20% −$31
crypto 19% +$130
economics 17% −$31
other 11% +$59
finance 2% +$4
world 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 0% -17.2%
≤30d 2 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 0% -17.2%
≤90d 2 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 0% -17.2%
all 38 +3.7% -6.2% 63% 45% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 45% -3.2%
10% -15.1% 29% -12.4%
15% -23.3% 24% -20.9%
20% -30.9% 13% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$25 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$138
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses24 / 14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage521d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 39¢ 40¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $102 $88 −$14 (-14%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 19¢ $23 $1 −$22 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $52 $0 +1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $201 −$22 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Dec 05 $100 −$32 -32%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 30 $58 +$22 +38%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $45 +$67 +150%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-21? Oct 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Oct 21 $100 +$13 +13%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Sep 09 $40 +$10 +25%
FIFA Club World Cup: Manchester City vs. Al Hilal (To Advance) Jul 01 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in June? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in June? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $26 +$13 +50%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $11 +$11 +97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on June 10? Jun 09 $155 +$173 +112%
Solana above $150 on May 2? May 20 $24 −$24 -100%
US recession in 2025? May 20 $90 +$23 +26%
Fed rate cut by June meeting? May 20 $55 −$45 -82%
Solana above $130 on March 21? Mar 21 $30 −$7 -24%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $60 +$11 +19%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 20 $35 −$12 -34%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Mar 20 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? Mar 14 $42 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Mar 14? Mar 13 $28 −$15 -54%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 13 $77 +$53 +68%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $41 +$7 +18%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-12? Mar 12 $20 +$8 +38%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 11 $12 +$5 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Mar 7? Mar 07 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Mar 7? Mar 01 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $90k first? Feb 27 $10 +$30 +289%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 26 $108 +$4 +3%
Makhachev vs. Moicano Feb 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Feb 26 $122 −$14 -11%
Shaq's OGs vs. Candace's Rising Stars Feb 17 $100 +$22 +22%
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov Jan 19 $66 −$49 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 7h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $103 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $105 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up $2 115d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 116d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 116d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 116d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $27 196d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 196d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 196d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 196d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 197d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 197d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes $68 200d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 88¢ $79 205d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes $30 205d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 70¢ $98 206d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 70¢ $14 206d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $27 206d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 206d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 206d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 35¢ $135 222d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 64¢ $58 235d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY Yes 10¢ $100 245d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $100 245d
Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 245d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 45¢ $113 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.18 · official $192.18 (match) · 156 history records