Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x942a…aedc sports 602 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8,997 (+6%) realized +$8,991 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate87%510W / 77L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day62.3pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$431
14 days−$12,074
30 days+$8,721
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$22,766
sports 11% −$9,827
other 9% −$786
crypto 4% −$3,509
weather 1% −$19
finance 1% +$49
tech 1% +$58
politics 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -2.6% -11.9% 90% 10% -12.2%
≤30d 549 +0.9% -8.7% 87% 7% -12.3%
≤90d 587 +1.1% -8.5% 87% 7% -12.3%
all 587 +1.1% -8.5% 87% 7% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 7% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 1% -20.7%
15% -25.3% 0% -28.3%
20% -32.6% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$230 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$524
Realized+$8,991
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses510 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions15
Markets (closed)587 / 602
History coverage36d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day62.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 587 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $73 $75 +$2 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? No 91¢ 97¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+7%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 85¢ 74¢ $47 $41 −$6 (-12%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $36 $37 +$2 (+4%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Morocco 96¢ 96¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? No 91¢ 97¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? No 98¢ 97¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? Anthropic 98¢ 97¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$8 +8%
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Jun 18 $26 +$3 +11%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $24 +$2 +10%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$2 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $59 +$7 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $42 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $28 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $29 +$2 +6%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $40 +$4 +11%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $26 +$3 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $28 +$1 +5%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $18 +$1 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $60 +$6 +10%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $31 +$1 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $31 +$1 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $27 +$2 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$1 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $64 +$6 +10%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $26 +$1 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 16? Jun 16 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $24 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $14 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $23 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $59 +$5 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $27 +$2 +7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $14 $0 +3%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $29 +$1 +5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $16 +$1 +5%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $19 +$2 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $38 +$3 +8%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 +$1 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $58 58m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $24 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $108 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $29 4h
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) BUY Uzbekistan 90¢ $26 7h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $26 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $23 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $48 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $24 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 85¢ $47 15h
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY No 91¢ $10 15h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 15h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 93¢ $20 16h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 93¢ $23 16h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 93¢ $23 16h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 93¢ $23 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $28 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $20 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $7 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $15 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $23 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $30 26h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $31 27h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) SELL Jordan 100¢ $45 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $523.99 · official $525.29 (match) · 2503 history records