Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:14:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x9428…e797 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$62 · open −$47
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$59
14 days+$59
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$32
world 7% −$6
crypto 2% +$5
economics 1% +$2
politics 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.2% -13.3% 33% 33% +28.7%
≤30d 11 +31.1% +18.6% 64% 64% +32.9%
≤90d 14 +49.2% +35.0% 71% 71% +35.4%
all 24 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 50% +26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 50% +26.3%
10% -17.1% 50% +14.2%
15% -25.1% 46% +3.2%
20% -32.5% 42% -6.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$454
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)24 / 31
History coverage193d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $359 $301 −$58 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 28 $27 −$18 -67%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $103 +$81 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 31 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 30 $5 +$4 +70%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 30 $5 +$6 +122%
Will Israel or the US target Tehran? May 10 $1 +$1 +117%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? May 10 $2 +$3 +144%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? May 10 $5 +$5 +85%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $10 +$2 +25%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 22 $1 +$1 +117%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Dec 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-20? Dec 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes $9 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $185 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $184 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $81 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $9 14d
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el BUY Yes 29¢ $1 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 28d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 52¢ $8 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 28d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 28d
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 147d
Will Israel or the US target Tehran? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 147d
Will the US strike Iran next? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 147d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 174d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 174d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $1 174d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 174d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 192d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $454.45 · official $454.45 (match) · 62 history records