Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9425…63f2 crypto 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$114 (-13%) realized −$173 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%22W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$40
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$66
crypto 33% −$121
sports 16% +$33
other 12% −$20
tech 1% +$14
finance 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +64.0% +48.4% 38% 35% +6.6%
≤30d 27 +58.1% +43.0% 37% 33% -13.8%
≤90d 56 +15.2% +4.2% 39% 36% -29.9%
all 56 +15.2% +4.2% 39% 36% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 36% -29.9%
10% -5.8% 36% -36.6%
15% -14.9% 32% -42.7%
20% -23.2% 29% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)56 / 64
History coverage64d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 35¢ 98¢ $20 $56 +$36 (+178%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 40¢ 28¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Under 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Yes 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Wilson Isidor: 1+ goals Yes 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 0 Scotland? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +165%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$6 -64%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -91%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$6 -62%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15 +$36 +237%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Wilson Isidor: 1+ goals Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $14 +$6 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$10 +105%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $8 +$12 +157%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -83%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1843%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $27 −$27 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $29 +$28 +97%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 01 $59 −$56 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 22 $7 +$3 +52%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 16 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 16 $6 +$6 +107%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 16 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 15 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the Apr 15 $40 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 15 $20 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 15 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 15 $5 +$4 +89%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? Apr 13 $10 −$4 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 16m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 16¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $6 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 6h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 24h
Wilson Isidor: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $3 24h
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $3 24h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 29¢ $15 24h
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 24h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 0 Scotland? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 24h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $6 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.31 · official $69.17 (match) · 143 history records