Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9424…13aa sports 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+2%) realized +$139 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%24W / 67L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$146
14 days+$146
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$34
other 40% +$12
crypto 13% −$64
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -21.0% -28.6% 20% 18% +0.9%
≤30d 55 -21.0% -28.6% 20% 18% +0.9%
≤90d 55 -21.0% -28.6% 20% 18% +0.9%
all 91 -22.4% -29.8% 26% 21% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 21% -4.8%
10% -36.5% 15% -13.9%
15% -42.7% 14% -22.2%
20% -48.3% 10% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$3 · ×3.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$139
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses24 / 67
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage142d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 14¢ $109 $57 −$52 (-48%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $53 $9 −$44 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $18 −$2 -12%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $226 −$11 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +110%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $41 +$53 +129%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $71 +$57 +80%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 $0 -13%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 $0 -6%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 -1%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 $0 -1%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $13 $0 -3%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $16 $0 -1%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 $0 -12%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $14 −$8 -57%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 −$4 -83%
Ghana to score first vs. England? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -50%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $18 −$7 -38%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $25 −$16 -63%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $4 −$1 -24%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $5 −$1 -17%
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $40 −$2 -4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $2 +$4 +180%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 +$3 +50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $101 +$33 +32%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 -4%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 23 $97 −$8 -9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $235 −$9 -4%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $53 +$74 +140%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $2 $0 -21%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $2 $0 -19%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -24%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $1 $0 -37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $76 +$36 +48%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 9m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 24m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 31m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 34m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $36 34m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 57m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 57m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 13¢ $16 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $23 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $75 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 34¢ $5 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 79¢ $20 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 51¢ $13 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 63¢ $16 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.74 · official $68.36 · 317 history records